Application of a Combined Model with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) in Forecasting Hepatitis Incidence in Heng County, China

Wudi Wei; Junjun Jiang; Hao Liang; Lian Gao; Bingyu Liang; Jiegang Huang; Ning Zang; Yanyan Liao; Jun Yu; Jingzhen Lai; Fengxiang Qin; Jinming Su; Li Ye; Hui Chen

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0156768

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Peer-reviewed

Research Article

Application of a Combined Model with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) in Forecasting Hepatitis Incidence in Heng County, China

Wudi Wei ,

Contributed equally to this work with: Wudi Wei, Junjun Jiang

Affiliation Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment & Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China
⨯
Junjun Jiang ,

Contributed equally to this work with: Wudi Wei, Junjun Jiang

Affiliation Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment & Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China
⨯
Hao Liang,

Affiliations Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment & Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China, Guangxi Collaborative Innovation Center for Biomedicine, Guangxi Medical Research Center, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China
⨯
Lian Gao,

Affiliation Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Heng County 530300, Guangxi, China
⨯
Bingyu Liang,

Affiliation Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment & Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China
⨯
Jiegang Huang,

Affiliation Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment & Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China
⨯
Ning Zang,

Affiliations Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment & Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China, Guangxi Collaborative Innovation Center for Biomedicine, Guangxi Medical Research Center, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China
⨯
Yanyan Liao,

Affiliations Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment & Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China, Guangxi Collaborative Innovation Center for Biomedicine, Guangxi Medical Research Center, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China
⨯
Jun Yu,

Affiliation Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment & Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China
⨯
Jingzhen Lai,

Affiliation Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment & Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China
⨯
Fengxiang Qin,

Affiliation Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment & Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China
⨯
Jinming Su,

Affiliation Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment & Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China
⨯
Li Ye ,

* E-mail: chenhui680804@163.com (HC); yeli@gxmu.edu.cn (LY)

Affiliations Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment & Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China, Guangxi Collaborative Innovation Center for Biomedicine, Guangxi Medical Research Center, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China
⨯
Hui Chen

* E-mail: chenhui680804@163.com (HC); yeli@gxmu.edu.cn (LY)

Affiliation Geriatrics Digestion Department of Internal Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China
⨯

Application of a Combined Model with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) in Forecasting Hepatitis Incidence in Heng County, China

Wudi Wei,
Junjun Jiang,
Hao Liang,
Lian Gao,
Bingyu Liang,
Jiegang Huang,
Ning Zang,
Yanyan Liao,
Jun Yu,
Jingzhen Lai

Published: June 3, 2016
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0156768

About the Authors

Wudi Wei

Contributed equally to this work with: Wudi Wei, Junjun Jiang

Affiliation Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment & Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China

Junjun Jiang

Contributed equally to this work with: Wudi Wei, Junjun Jiang

Hao Liang

Affiliations Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment & Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China, Guangxi Collaborative Innovation Center for Biomedicine, Guangxi Medical Research Center, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China

Lian Gao

Affiliation Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Heng County 530300, Guangxi, China

Bingyu Liang

Jiegang Huang

Ning Zang

Yanyan Liao

Jun Yu

Jingzhen Lai

Fengxiang Qin

Jinming Su

Li Ye

* E-mail: chenhui680804@163.com (HC); yeli@gxmu.edu.cn (LY)

Hui Chen

* E-mail: chenhui680804@163.com (HC); yeli@gxmu.edu.cn (LY)

Affiliation Geriatrics Digestion Department of Internal Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China

Competing Interests

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Author Contributions

Conceived and designed the experiments: HL LY WDW JJJ NZ HC. Performed the experiments: WDW JJJ LG BYL JGH. Analyzed the data: WDW JY JZL FXQ YYL. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: WDW JJJ JMS. Wrote the paper: WDW JJJ JMS YYL.

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Forecasting
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Epidemiology
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Mathematical functions
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Hepatitis A
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Morbidity
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Infectious disease epidemiology
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China
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