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Synchrony of Sylvatic Dengue Isolations: A Multi-Host, Multi-Vector SIR Model of Dengue Virus Transmission in Senegal

Figure 5

Example time series of long-period isolations.

This figure indicates the regions of model parameter space that exhibit multiannual dynamics consistent with the observed periodicity of isolations of dengue in Senegal. The blue dots highlight areas of panel A in Figure 4 where the Fourier spectrum has a maximum between 5 and 12 years. The figure also shows an example time series of long-period, synchronized cycles in large primates (panel B) and small primates (panel C). The arrow and green dot indicate the position in parameter space that was used to generate the time series in panels B and C. Here, and are coupled at 1/500th of the on-diagonal biting rates. Contour lines are analytically calculated values of (see Supporting Information S1). The dynamics in the mosquito population are qualitatively identical and can be found in Figure S6. Other parameter values are: , , , , , and , .

Figure 5