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Understanding Uncertainties in Model-Based Predictions of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

Figure 7

Drivers for the spatial clustering pattern as measured by Moran's I.

a) proportions of uncertainty in Moran's I contributed by different model parameters; b) overlay of the hot spots of food input distribution (as identified by the Getis Gi*(d) score with inverse distance weights) with distribution map of mean female adult density at individual houses (based on model simulations with parameter sets sampled by FAST); and c) the semivariogram of mean population density distribution for female adults. The semivariogram describes the spatial dependence in population density at the individual-house level, with higher values indicating lower spatial autocorrelation. See Text S5 for details of the calculations of both Getis Gi*(d) score and semivariogram. A-FS: nominal survival rate for female adults; Fc: coefficient of food dependence for larvae; Fd1: coefficient of metabolic weight loss for larvae; L-D: larval development rate; L-S: nominal survival rate for larvae; SD-FL: Long-range dispersal probability for female adults; SD-FS: Short-range dispersal probability for female adults. See Table 1 for a detailed explanation of each parameter.

Figure 7

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000830.g007