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Understanding Uncertainties in Model-Based Predictions of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

Figure 5

Uncertainty in the predicted female adult population density at the individual-house level on simulation day 720.

For each individual house, we quantify uncertainty in the predicted population density (as is described by the (a) mean, (b) standard deviation, and (c) coefficient of variation of predicted population density across the parameter sets sampled by FAST), (d) the proportion of uncertainty contributed by stochasticity, and (e–h) the proportions of uncertainty contributed by specific model parameters. To simplify this figure, only parameters with uncertainty contributions in any house larger than 5% are plotted.

Figure 5