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Understanding Uncertainties in Model-Based Predictions of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

Figure 4

The percentage of uncertainty in the predicted population density contributed by environmental and demographic stochasticity on each simulation day.

The environmental stochasticity mainly refers to stochasticity in food input dynamics, while demographic stochasticity mainly refers to stochasticity in mosquito development, survival and dispersal. Stochastic uncertainty is estimated based on the difference in predicted population densities between two replicates of model runs on parameter sets sampled by FAST (a total of 10,000 simulations, see Text S4 for technical details).

Figure 4