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Understanding Uncertainties in Model-Based Predictions of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

Figure 3

Dependence of community-level population densities at different life stages on the nominal survival rate for female adults.

The population density is averaged over the second simulation year. Cubic smoothing spline curves (fitted using the SemiPar R package [45]) show the relationship between the parameter values sampled by FAST and the resulting population density predictions. The shaded areas are the 95% confidence intervals of fitted curves.

Figure 3