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Understanding Uncertainties in Model-Based Predictions of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

Figure 2

Contributions by different model parameters to uncertainty in the predicted community-level population density at different life stages.

Uncertainty analysis is carried out on average population densities predicted over the second simulation year. The vertical bars represent standard errors (plot shows mean +/− standard error). To simplify this figure, we only plot the five parameters that contribute most to the uncertainty in each case. Please see Table S6, S7, S8, S9, S10, S11 for a complete list. A-FS: nominal survival rate for female adults; A-MS: nominal survival rate for male adults; A-F: coefficient of fecundity for female adults; E-PTH: high temperature limit for predator activities on eggs (°C); E-SPTH: survival factor of predation at high temperatures for eggs; Fc: coefficient of food dependence for larvae; Fd1: coefficient of metabolic weight loss for larvae; L-D: larval development rate; L-S: nominal survival rate for larvae. See Table 1 for a detailed explanation of each parameter.

Figure 2