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Future ozone-related acute excess mortality under climate and population change scenarios in China: A modeling study

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Historical and future changes in ambient ozone concentration and population.

(A) Spatial distribution of annual average daily ozone concentration (parts per billion [ppb]) during 2013–2015 (historical period) in 104 Chinese cities. Ozone concentration is the maximum daily 8-hour average. (B) Historical (2013–2015) and projected (2053–2055) annual average daily ozone concentration (ppb) in 104 Chinese cities under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 represent moderate and high global warming and emission scenarios, respectively. The horizontal line within each box represents the median concentration among 104 cities, the lower and upper boundaries of the box indicate the 25th and 75th percentiles, and the ends of the whisker lines indicate the maximum and minimum concentrations within 1.5 times the interquartile range from the upper and lower box boundaries. (C) Projected population size in 104 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2050 under 6 population change scenarios under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). (D) Projected population aging in China from 2010 to 2050 under 5 SSP population change scenarios.

Fig 1

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002598.g001