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A Surprising Prevention Success: Why Did the HIV Epidemic Decline in Zimbabwe?

Figure 1

Summary of epidemiological findings.

(A) Estimated trends in HIV prevalence, incidence, and AIDS deaths using a mathematical model of HIV transmission fitted to antenatal and household-based estimates of HIV prevalence, 1980–2010. HIV incidence peaks around 1991 and declines as part of the natural course of epidemic maturation; incidence decline is accelerated between about 1999 and 2003 due to reductions in sexual risk behavior [14]. (As has been noted [14], incidence declined a little earlier in urban areas. The model suggests behavior change could have continued partly into 2004 in rural areas, but the majority of changes were concentrated within the 1999–2003 period [14].) (B) Changes in key indicators of sexual partnership formation taken from the nationally representative DHSs (1999 and 2005/6) and surveys in Manicaland, rural eastern Zimbabwe (1998–2000 and 2001–2003) [13],[16].

Figure 1