A Surprising Prevention Success: Why Did the HIV Epidemic Decline in Zimbabwe?
(A) Estimated trends in HIV prevalence, incidence, and AIDS deaths using a mathematical model of HIV transmission fitted to antenatal and household-based estimates of HIV prevalence, 1980–2010. HIV incidence peaks around 1991 and declines as part of the natural course of epidemic maturation; incidence decline is accelerated between about 1999 and 2003 due to reductions in sexual risk behavior . (As has been noted , incidence declined a little earlier in urban areas. The model suggests behavior change could have continued partly into 2004 in rural areas, but the majority of changes were concentrated within the 1999–2003 period .) (B) Changes in key indicators of sexual partnership formation taken from the nationally representative DHSs (1999 and 2005/6) and surveys in Manicaland, rural eastern Zimbabwe (1998–2000 and 2001–2003) ,.