About the Authors

Annick Bórquez

annick.borquez06@imperial.ac.uk

Affiliations Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom, Division of Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, San Diego, California, United States of America

Anne Cori

Affiliation Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

Erica L. Pufall

Affiliation Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

Jingo Kasule

Affiliation Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda

Emma Slaymaker

Affiliation Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene &Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Alison Price

Affiliation Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene &Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Jocelyn Elmes

Affiliation Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

Basia Zaba

Affiliation Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene &Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Amelia C. Crampin

Affiliation Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene &Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Joseph Kagaayi

Affiliation Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda

Tom Lutalo

Affiliation Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda

Mark Urassa

Affiliation Mwanza Research Centre, National Institute for Medical Research, Mwanza, Tanzania

Simon Gregson

Affiliation Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

Timothy B. Hallett

Affiliation Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

Competing Interests

I have read the journal's policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: BZ is a member of UNAIDS reference group on estimates, projections and modelling. SG holds Ordinary shareholdings in Astra Zeneca and GlaxoSmithKline.

Author Contributions

Conceived and designed the experiments: AB AC TBH. Performed the experiments: AB. Analyzed the data: ELP JiK AP ES JE AB. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: BZ ACC MU SG TL JK. Wrote the first draft of the manuscript: AB AC TBH. Contributed to the writing of the manuscript: AB AC ELP JiK ES AP JE BZ ACC TL JK MU SG TBH. Agree with the manuscript’s results and conclusions: AB AC ELP JiK ES AP JE BZ ACC TL JK MU SG TBH. All authors have read, and confirm that they meet, ICMJE criteria for authorship.