About the Authors

Edward Goldstein

egoldste@hsph.harvard.edu

Affiliation Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

Sarah Cobey

Affiliation Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

Saki Takahashi

Affiliation Department of Applied Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America

Joel C. Miller

Affiliations Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, Fogarty International Center, US National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America

Marc Lipsitch

Affiliations Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

Competing Interests

Marc Lipsitch is on the PLoS Medicine Editorial Board. ML discloses consulting income from the Avian/Pandemic Flu Registry (Outcome Sciences, funded in part by Roche) and from Pfizer/Wyeth and from Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics. The other authors declare no competing interests.

Author Contributions

Conceived and designed the experiments: EG SC JCM ML. Performed the experiments: EG ST. Analyzed the data: EG ST SC ML. Wrote the paper: EG SC ML. ICMJE criteria for authorship read and met: EG ST SC JCM ML. Agree with the manuscript's results and conclusions: EG ST SC JCM ML. Wrote the first draft of the paper: EG SC ML.