About the Authors

Steven Riley, Joseph T Wu, Gabriel M Leung
Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China

Corresponding Author


Competing Interests

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Author Contributions

All authors contributed to study design, interpretation of findings, and writing the paper. SR and JTW analysed the data. SR wrote the first draft of the manuscript and constructed an independent model to validate key findings. JTW designed and implemented the main mathematical model and identified previously published data sets in the literature.