About the Authors

George Peat

g.m.peat@keele.ac.uk

These authors contributed equally and are joint first authors.

Affiliation Arthritis Research UK Primary Care Research Centre, Research Institute for Primary Care & Health Sciences, Keele University, Keele, Staffordshire, United Kingdom

Richard D. Riley

These authors contributed equally and are joint first authors.

Affiliation School of Health and Population Sciences, University of Birmingham, United Kingdom

Peter Croft

Affiliation Arthritis Research UK Primary Care Research Centre, Research Institute for Primary Care & Health Sciences, Keele University, Keele, Staffordshire, United Kingdom

Katherine I. Morley

Affiliations Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom, Centre for Molecular, Environmental, Genetic and Analytic Epidemiology, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Panayiotis A. Kyzas

Affiliation Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, North Manchester General Hospital, Pennine Acute NHS Trust, Manchester, United Kingdom

Karel G. M. Moons

Affiliation Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, UMC Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands

Pablo Perel

Affiliation London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Ewout W. Steyerberg

Affiliation Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands

Sara Schroter

Affiliation BMJ, London, United Kingdom

Douglas G. Altman

Affiliation Centre for Statistics in Medicine, University of Oxford, Wolfson College Annexe, Oxford, United Kingdom

Harry Hemingway

Affiliation Department of Epidemiology and Public Health and Director of the Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research at UCL Partners, London, United Kingdom

for the PROGRESS Group

‡ Membership of the PROGRESS Group is listed in the Acknowledgments.

Competing Interests

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Author Contributions

Conceived and designed the experiments: GP RDR PC KIM PAK KGMM PP EWS SS DGA HH. Performed the experiments: GP RDR PC KIM PAK KGMM PP EWS SS DGA HH. Wrote the first draft of the manuscript: GP RDR PC KIM KGMM SS. Contributed to the writing of the manuscript: GP RDR PC KIM PAK KGMM PP EWS SS DGA HH. ICMJE criteria for authorship read and met: GP RDR PC KIM PAK KGMM PP EWS SS DGA HH. Agree with manuscript results and conclusions: GP RDR PC KIM PAK KGMM PP EWS SS DGA HH.