Optimal Population-Level Infection Detection Strategies for Malaria Control and Elimination in a Spatial Model of Malaria Transmission
Fig 2
Fitting of transmission intensities to individual households in four HFCAs shows a prominent role for transmission by subpatent individuals.
(A) Distribution of fitted household transmission intensities by HFCA. EIR: entomological inoculation rate, the number of infectious bites per person per year. Shaded areas indicate 95% confidence intervals from 100 stochastic realizations. (B) Household transmission intensity varied spatially within an HFCA. Geometric mean transmission intensity observed over 100 stochastic realizations. (C) Asexual parasite prevalence and infectious potential of constructed populations by HFCA, age, and detectability of asexual parasites by current RDTs, improved RDTs, and PCR, normalized to population 1000, on June 15. Here the infectious potential was defined as the number of mosquitoes that would be infected if 1000 mosquitoes were to feed on a village of 1000 people. Results shown are means of 100 stochastic realizations.