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Predicting Epidemic Risk from Past Temporal Contact Data

Fig 5

Memory driven dynamical model: model properties and validation of the risk assessment analysis.

(A): Probability distributions of the node in-degree, in the low (pα = 0.3) and high memory (pα = 0.7) regimes. The slope of the distributions does not depend on pα, and it is forced by the exponent γ of the βin distribution (dashed line). (B): Probability distributions of the loyalty, in the low and high memory regimes. Distributions are color-coded as in panel (a). (C): Probability distributions of the risk ratio ν, in the low and high memory regimes. Lines represent the median values obtained from 50 realizations of the model; darker and lighter shaded areas represent the 50% and 95% confidence intervals. (D): Probability distributions of the predictive power ω, in the low and high memory regimes. Medians and confidence intervals are presented as in panel (C). Distributions are color-coded as in panel (A).

Fig 5

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004152.g005