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Bayesian History Matching of Complex Infectious Disease Models Using Emulation: A Tutorial and a Case Study on HIV in Uganda

Figure 2

History matching workflow.

The simulator is evaluated at carefully selected design points. Its output is used to train the emulator, which, with the help of the implausibility measure, determines the parts of the input space which are non-implausible (NI). The simulator is then evaluated at set of design points from the non-implausible space and the procedure is repeated until one or more stopping criteria are met.

Figure 2