Task-Specific Response Strategy Selection on the Basis of Recent Training Experience
Figure 1
Many daily tasks can require prediction.
When attempting to determine whether it is safe to cross the road, one must estimate the probability that approaching cars will be in the crosswalk at the same time as you. The uncertainty associated with this look ahead depends on both your estimate of the current state of the car - including its present position and velocity - and your estimate of its likely progression as it approaches the crosswalk - including possible lane changes. Errors in these estimates propagate with time, resulting in considerable uncertainty about the car's most likely future position. Both the cognitive demands of the prediction task and the error rate can be reduced using a simpler mapping strategy that entails crossing only when the walk sign is lit.