Inferring the Dynamics of Diversification: A Coalescent Approach
The red histogram shows, for each of the 289 phylogenies, the relative probability of the best model with expanding diversity versus the best model with saturated diversity. The blue histogram shows the relative probability of the best model with time-varying rates versus the best model with constant rates. The green histogram shows the relative probability of the best model with positive extinction versus the best model without extinction. The relative probabilities of two models are calculated using their Akaike weights. Most empirical phylogenies are consistent with the hypotheses that diversity is expanding (in red) and that speciation rates vary through time (in blue). Extinction is not detected in most phylogenies (in green).